Bank of Canada Holds Rate at 2.25% — July 15, 2026

Michael Hallett • July 15, 2026

The Bank of Canada announced today that it is holding its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The tone of today's announcement is notably more optimistic than previous months. Here's what's changed and what it means for you.

What the Bank of Canada Said

Signs of Improvement

For the first time in several months, the Bank is signalling that Canada's economy is showing real signs of improvement. Growth is picking up, and inflation is projected to ease gradually from its recent spike. While risks remain, particularly around the Middle East conflict and U.S. trade policy, the overall tone has shifted toward cautious optimism.

The Global Picture

Since the April Monetary Policy Report, global economic prospects have been dampened by higher oil prices from the Middle East conflict. However, the build-out of artificial intelligence is now supporting economic activity in a growing number of countries. Oil prices are still below their April peak, though the situation in the Middle East remains volatile.

The U.S. economy is growing at about 2.5%, driven by strong consumer spending and booming AI investment. China continues to expand on the back of robust exports. Europe has been weighed down by high energy prices but is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year if prices ease as anticipated. The Bank projects global GDP growth will slow to 2.75% in 2026 before recovering to around 3.25% in 2027 and 2028.

The Canadian Economy

Canada's GDP data over the past year has been choppy. Growth stalled as the economy adjusted to new tariffs, high uncertainty, and slower population growth. But there are now clear signs that growth has resumed in the second quarter, estimated at 2.5%. The Bank acknowledges this largely reflects the unwinding of temporary factors, but sources of growth appear to be broadening.

Consumer spending looks solid. Housing activity has been weak but is showing signs of stabilizing. Export growth has resumed and is expected to strengthen. Business investment is projected to pick up modestly, boosted in the near term by the oil and gas sector. More businesses also report they are finding ways to navigate through trade uncertainty.

Following GDP growth of 0.7% in 2026, the Bank projects growth of 1.8% in both 2027 and 2028. The unemployment rate was 6.5% in June, continuing to hover in the 6.5% to 7% range it has maintained since late 2024.

Inflation

CPI inflation rose to 3.2% in May, mainly due to higher gasoline prices linked to the Middle East conflict. Excluding gasoline, inflation was just 2.2%, and core inflation measures remained close to 2%. That is an important distinction: the inflation we are seeing is largely an energy story, not a broad cost-of-living surge.

Near-term inflation expectations remain sensitive to gasoline prices, but longer-term expectations are well anchored. The Bank expects CPI inflation to stay elevated in June before easing gradually in the coming months, returning to around 2% in early 2027. Inflation is then forecast to average around 2% in 2027 and 2028.

Why the Bank Held

Governing Council judged that the current rate of 2.25% remains appropriate to sustain the economic recovery and bring inflation back to target. Uncertainty is still high, and the Bank remains prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed. The commitment to price stability remains firm through this period of global upheaval.

What This Means for Mortgage Holders and Buyers

A rate hold means no immediate change to variable-rate mortgage payments or home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) tied to the prime rate. The prime rate remains at 4.45%.

Today's announcement carries a more positive signal than we have seen in recent months. The economy is recovering, core inflation is near target, and the Bank's language suggests the path forward is one of gradual improvement, not further tightening. For borrowers, this is an encouraging environment to plan ahead.

If you are renewing a mortgage in the coming months, thinking about purchasing, or weighing your fixed vs. variable options, now is a good time to have that conversation. The landscape is shifting, and being prepared puts you in the best possible position.

The next scheduled rate announcement is September 9, 2026 .

As always, every borrower's situation is unique. If you have questions about how today's decision affects your mortgage, reach out. We would love to help you navigate your options.

Information sourced from the Bank of Canada's official press release dated July 15, 2026.

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RRSP Home Buyers’ Plan Explained: A Smart Way to Buy Your First Home

By Michael Hallett • July 8, 2026
Saving for a down payment is one of the biggest challenges first-time buyers face. What many don’t realize is that the Canadian government offers a program designed to make it easier—the Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP) . This program allows you to withdraw money from your RRSP to help purchase your first home, without immediate tax consequences. Here’s how it works: Who Qualifies? To be eligible, you generally need to be a first-time home buyer. In practical terms, this means you must not have owned a home in the past four years, nor lived in a property owned by your spouse or partner during that time. There are also special allowances if you’re living with a disability or helping a relative with a disability. In these cases, you can use the HBP even if you’ve owned a home more recently. How Much Can You Withdraw? Under the program, you can access up to $35,000 from your RRSP as an individual. Couples can combine their withdrawals for a total of $70,000 . These funds must have been in your RRSP for at least 90 days before you take them out. Paying It Back The HBP isn’t “free money”—it’s an interest-free loan from your own retirement savings. You’ll have 15 years to repay the full amount back into your RRSP, starting in the second year after withdrawal. Each year, the CRA will send you an HBP Statement of Account outlining how much needs to be repaid. If you don’t make your repayment in a given year, that amount will be added to your taxable income. Why It’s a Smart Strategy The HBP can give first-time buyers a powerful boost toward homeownership. It helps you put together a larger down payment, which can reduce your mortgage amount and monthly payments. Just remember: it’s important to balance the short-term benefit of homeownership with the long-term impact on your retirement savings. Next Steps Thinking about using the Home Buyers’ Plan? Let’s sit down and review whether it’s the right move for you. Together, we can create a strategy that gets you into your first home while keeping your future financial goals on track. 📞 Reach out anytime—it would be a pleasure to guide you through the process.

Let’s Talk About Getting Top Dollar for Your Property

By Michael Hallett • July 1, 2026
When it comes to selling your home, most people think the first call should be to a real estate agent. But the smartest first step often isn’t with your agent—it’s with an independent mortgage professional. Why? Because your mortgage plays a bigger role in your bottom line than most people realize. Planning to Buy After You Sell If selling means you’ll also be purchasing another property, you’ll want to know exactly where you stand financially before listing. Mortgage rules change regularly, and qualifying once doesn’t guarantee you’ll qualify again. Getting a pre-approval in place ensures you know what you can afford and eliminates surprises later. On top of that, reviewing the terms of your existing mortgage could uncover options you may not have considered. For example, porting your mortgage instead of arranging a brand-new one could save you thousands. Selling Without Buying Even if you aren’t planning to buy right away, there’s still an important step: understanding the cost of breaking your mortgage. Unless your mortgage is open, penalties apply—and they can be significant. By reviewing the numbers with a mortgage professional, you might find that simply adjusting your timeline could reduce or even avoid costly fees. Navigating Life Changes In situations like a marital breakdown, it can feel like selling the family home is the only path forward. But that’s not always the case. With the right guidance and a legal separation agreement, one spouse may be able to buy out the other, keeping the home and providing stability for everyone involved. The Bottom Line Selling your property is more than just putting a sign on the lawn—it’s about creating a financial plan that protects your equity and positions you for the best possible outcome. Before you take the leap, let’s sit down and review your options. 📞 If you’re ready to talk strategy and make sure you get top dollar for your property, I’d be happy to connect anytime.