Bank of Canada Rate Announcement April 24th, 2019
Michael Hallett • April 24, 2019
The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ per cent.
Global economic growth has slowed by more than the Bank forecast in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Ongoing uncertainty related to trade conflicts has undermined business sentiment and activity, contributing to a synchronous slowdown across many countries. In response, many central banks have signalled a slower pace of monetary policy normalization. Financial conditions and market sentiment have improved as a result, pushing up prices for oil and other commodities.
Global economic activity is expected to pick up during 2019 and average 3 ¼ per cent over the projection period, supported by accommodative financial conditions and as a number of temporary factors weighing on growth fade. This is roughly in line with the global economy’s potential and a modest downgrade to the Bank’s January projection.
In Canada, growth during the first half of 2019 is now expected to be slower than was anticipated in January. Last year’s oil price decline and ongoing transportation constraints have curbed investment and exports in the energy sector. Investment and exports outside the energy sector, meanwhile, have been negatively affected by trade policy uncertainty and the global slowdown. Weaker-than-anticipated housing and consumption also contributed to slower growth.
The Bank expects growth to pick up, starting in the second quarter of this year. Housing activity is expected to stabilize given continued population gains, the fading effects of past housing policy changes, and improved global financial conditions. Consumption will be underpinned by strong growth in employment income. Outside of the oil and gas sector, investment will be supported by high rates of capacity utilization and exports will expand with strengthening global demand. Meanwhile, the contribution to growth from government spending has been revised down in light of Ontario’s new budget.
Overall, the Bank projects real GDP growth of 1.2 per cent in 2019 and around 2 per cent in 2020 and 2021. This forecast implies a modest widening of the output gap, which will be absorbed over the projection period.
CPI and measures of core inflation are all close to 2 per cent. CPI inflation will likely dip in the third quarter, largely because of the dynamics of gasoline prices, before returning to about 2 per cent by year end. Taking into account the effects of the new carbon pollution charge, as well as modest excess capacity, the Bank expects inflation to remain around 2 per cent through 2020 and 2021.
Given all of these developments, Governing Council judges that an accommodative policy interest rate continues to be warranted. We will continue to evaluate the appropriate degree of monetary policy accommodation as new data arrive. In particular, we are monitoring developments in household spending, oil markets, and global trade policy to gauge the extent to which the factors weighing on growth and the inflation outlook are dissipating.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is May 29, 2019. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on July 10, 2019.
To view the Monetary Policy Report, follow this link.
The remaining announcement dates in 2019 are as follows:
May 29th 2019
July 10th 2019*
September 4th 2019
October 30th 2019*
December 4th 2019
* Monetary Policy Report published
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If you’re like most Canadians, chances are you don’t have enough money in the bank to buy a property outright. So, you need a mortgage. When you’re ready, it would be a pleasure to help you assess and secure the best mortgage available. But until then, here’s some information on what to consider when selecting the best mortgage to lower your overall cost of borrowing. When getting a mortgage, the property you own is held as collateral and interest is charged on the money you’ve borrowed. Your mortgage will be paid back over a defined period of time, usually 25 years; this is called amortization. Your amortization is then broken into terms that outline the interest cost varying in length from 6 months to 10 years. From there, each mortgage will have a list of features that outline the terms of the mortgage. When assessing the suitability of a mortgage, your number one goal should be to keep your cost of borrowing as low as possible. And contrary to conventional wisdom, this doesn’t always mean choosing the mortgage with the lowest rate. It means thinking through your financial and life situation and choosing the mortgage that best suits your needs. Choosing a mortgage with a low rate is a part of lowering your borrowing costs, but it’s certainly not the only factor. There are many other factors to consider; here are a few of them: How long do you anticipate living in the property? This will help you decide on an appropriate term. Do you plan on moving for work, or do you need the flexibility to move in the future? This could help you decide if portability is important to you. What does the prepayment penalty look like if you have to break your term? This is probably the biggest factor in lowering your overall cost of borrowing. How is the lender’s interest rate differential calculated, what figures do they use? This is very tough to figure out on your own. Get help. What are the prepayment privileges? If you’d like to pay down your mortgage faster. How is the mortgage registered on the title? This could impact your ability to switch to another lender upon renewal without incurring new legal costs, or it could mean increased flexibility down the line. Should you consider a fixed rate, variable rate, HELOC, or a reverse mortgage? There are many different types of mortgages; each has its own pros and cons. What is the size of your downpayment? Coming up with more money down might lower (or eliminate) mortgage insurance premiums, saving you thousands of dollars. So again, while the interest rate is important, it’s certainly not the only consideration when assessing the suitability of a mortgage. Obviously, the conversation is so much more than just the lowest rate. The best advice is to work with an independent mortgage professional who has your best interest in mind and knows exactly how to keep your cost of borrowing as low as possible. You will often find that mortgages with the rock bottom, lowest rates, can have potential hidden costs built in to the mortgage terms that will cost you a lot of money down the road. Sure, a rate that is 0.10% lower could save you a few dollars a month in payments, but if the mortgage is restrictive, breaking the mortgage halfway through the term could cost you thousands or tens of thousands of dollars. Which obviously negates any interest saved in going with a lower rate. It would be a pleasure to walk you through the fine print of mortgage financing to ensure you can secure the best mortgage with the lowest overall cost of borrowing, given your financial and life situation. Please connect anytime!
Bank of Canada holds policy rate at 2¾%. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario June 4, 2025 The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%. Since the April Monetary Policy Report, the US administration has continued to increase and decrease various tariffs. China and the United States have stepped back from extremely high tariffs and bilateral trade negotiations have begun with a number of countries. However, the outcomes of these negotiations are highly uncertain, tariff rates are well above their levels at the beginning of 2025, and new trade actions are still being threatened. Uncertainty remains high. While the global economy has shown resilience in recent months, this partly reflects a temporary surge in activity to get ahead of tariffs. In the United States, domestic demand remained relatively strong but higher imports pulled down first-quarter GDP. US inflation has ticked down but remains above 2%, with the price effects of tariffs still to come. In Europe, economic growth has been supported by exports, while defence spending is set to increase. China’s economy has slowed as the effects of past fiscal support fade. More recently, high tariffs have begun to curtail Chinese exports to the US. Since the financial market turmoil in April, risk assets have largely recovered and volatility has diminished, although markets remain sensitive to US policy announcements. Oil prices have fluctuated but remain close to their levels at the time of the April MPR. In Canada, economic growth in the first quarter came in at 2.2%, slightly stronger than the Bank had forecast, while the composition of GDP growth was largely as expected. The pull-forward of exports to the United States and inventory accumulation boosted activity, with final domestic demand roughly flat. Strong spending on machinery and equipment held up growth in business investment by more than expected. Consumption slowed from its very strong fourth-quarter pace, but continued to grow despite a large drop in consumer confidence. Housing activity was down, driven by a sharp contraction in resales. Government spending also declined. The labour market has weakened, particularly in trade-intensive sectors, and unemployment has risen to 6.9%. The economy is expected to be considerably weaker in the second quarter, with the strength in exports and inventories reversing and final domestic demand remaining subdued. CPI inflation eased to 1.7% in April, as the elimination of the federal consumer carbon tax reduced inflation by 0.6 percentage points. Excluding taxes, inflation rose 2.3% in April, slightly stronger than the Bank had expected. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation, as well as other measures of underlying inflation, moved up. Recent surveys indicate that households continue to expect that tariffs will raise prices and many businesses say they intend to pass on the costs of higher tariffs. The Bank will be watching all these indicators closely to gauge how inflationary pressures are evolving. With uncertainty about US tariffs still high, the Canadian economy softer but not sharply weaker, and some unexpected firmness in recent inflation data, Governing Council decided to hold the policy rate as we gain more information on US trade policy and its impacts. We will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs. Governing Council is proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy. These include: the extent to which higher US tariffs reduce demand for Canadian exports; how much this spills over into business investment, employment and household spending; how much and how quickly cost increases are passed on to consumer prices; and how inflation expectations evolve. We are focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. We will support economic growth while ensuring inflation remains well controlled. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is July 30, 2025. The Bank will publish its next MPR at the same time.
