Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jan 25th, 2023
Michael Hallett • January 25, 2023
Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate by 25 basis points, continues quantitative tightening.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
January 25, 2023
The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 4½%, with the Bank Rate at 4¾% and the deposit rate at 4½%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.
Global inflation remains high and broad-based. Inflation is coming down in many countries, largely reflecting lower energy prices as well as improvements in global supply chains. In the United States and Europe, economies are slowing but proving more resilient than was expected at the time of the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). China’s abrupt lifting of COVID-19 restrictions has prompted an upward revision to the growth forecast for China and poses an upside risk to commodity prices. Russia’s war on Ukraine remains a significant source of uncertainty. Financial conditions remain restrictive but have eased since October, and the Canadian dollar has been relatively stable against the US dollar.
The Bank estimates the global economy grew by about 3½% in 2022, and will slow to about 2% in 2023 and 2½% in 2024. This projection is slightly higher than October’s.
In Canada, recent economic growth has been stronger than expected and the economy remains in excess demand. Labour markets are still tight: the unemployment rate is near historic lows and businesses are reporting ongoing difficulty finding workers. However, there is growing evidence that restrictive monetary policy is slowing activity, especially household spending. Consumption growth has moderated from the first half of 2022 and housing market activity has declined substantially. As the effects of interest rate increases continue to work through the economy, spending on consumer services and business investment are expected to slow. Meanwhile, weaker foreign demand will likely weigh on exports. This overall slowdown in activity will allow supply to catch up with demand.
The Bank estimates Canada’s economy grew by 3.6% in 2022, slightly stronger than was projected in October. Growth is expected to stall through the middle of 2023, picking up later in the year. The Bank expects GDP growth of about 1% in 2023 and about 2% in 2024, little changed from the October outlook.
Inflation has declined from 8.1% in June to 6.3% in December, reflecting lower gasoline prices and, more recently, moderating prices for durable goods. Despite this progress, Canadians are still feeling the hardship of high inflation in their essential household expenses, with persistent price increases for food and shelter. Short-term inflation expectations remain elevated. Year-over-year measures of core inflation are still around 5%, but 3-month measures of core inflation have come down, suggesting that core inflation has peaked.
Inflation is projected to come down significantly this year. Lower energy prices, improvements in global supply conditions, and the effects of higher interest rates on demand are expected to bring CPI inflation down to around 3% in the middle of this year and back to the 2% target in 2024.
With persistent excess demand putting continued upward pressure on many prices, Governing Council decided to increase the policy interest rate by a further 25 basis points. The Bank’s ongoing program of quantitative tightening is complementing the restrictive stance of the policy rate. If economic developments evolve broadly in line with the MPR outlook, Governing Council expects to hold the policy rate at its current level while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate increases. Governing Council is prepared to increase the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target, and remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 8, 2023. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on April 12, 2023.
Read the January 25th, 2023 Monetary Policy Report.
SHARE
MY INSTAGRAM
One of the most common questions, “how long does it take to get pre-qualified?” My response, “how fast can you provide the information I need.”
Playing in the forest today. Always fun exploring. #mountainbikingmortgagebroker
Mortgage Brokering meets mountain biking and craft beer. A couple months ago I set for a bike ride with the intention of answering few mortgage related questions, mission accomplished. Any good bike ride pairs nicely with a tasty beer which we enjoyed @parksidebrewery. Hope you see the passion I have for brokering, biking and beer. @torcabikes #mountainbikingmortgagebroker
My thighs were cold all day, it was ‘that’ deep. I was choking on snow all day.
The weather report was 36 cm of new snow, it was more like 45-50 cm of light deep powder. Insane day of skiing.
Spotted a ski-bunny today @kirstinjhallett so I trapped ‘er. 📸 credit @troy.hartley
Aidan leading the pack up the Lemming Line in seek of fine fresh powder.
Beautiful British Columbia! A cold winter day at its finest.
Aidan and I braved the -19C temperature and windy conditions for the boot to knee deep turns...it was a no-brainer.
Happy Holidays. Seasons Greetings. Merry Christmas. All the best from Kirstin, Aidan and Michael. Enjoy your family time.
Snow report for today was boot to knee deep in places. Simply an awesome day rippin’ with the kids, I had to show them that I still got it. 📷 credit @jhalskiing
It’s that time of year for my annual post, the Christmas Tree pilgrimage. The only that changes year after year is that Aidan gets taller! Not to worry though, the Canadian tuxedo jacket remains the same. HAPPY HOLIDAYS everyone. Much love to all.
Fresh wood in the morning...where is this treasure trail going to take me?
TEASER alert...at thats what I think they call it in the business. Years ago a wrote a blog called BEERS BIKES AND MORTGAGES. I some how (in my head) blended all 3 topics into 1 blog. Simply put, I enjoy aspects of all 3 with each of them providing something different. I re-united with the talented Regan Payne on a project that I think will shed a bit more light on who I am and what I do. #craftbeer #mountainbike #mortgagebrokerbc #dlccanadainc
Here is to looking forward past injuries, feels good to be riding again. It was a 18 week grind!
Extreme tubing, watch until the end. Aidan manages to hold on.
Lake life as a passenger is a good life. Captain @kirstinjhallett . #woodlake #kalamakalake
Yet another reason why our license plates say BEAUTIFUL BRITISH COLUMBIA on them. An evening enjoy the view on Pitt Lake.
Surfing! Don’t need functioning hands to surf. It was nice to do something active. Thanks @jordspring #sakinaw
Good thing there were a few other vehicles with winches on the front.
He was OK, thumbs up. The roll cage and 5-point seat belt did its job.
My sons intro to operating a side-by-side on his own. Watch to the end.
The Lookout over looking Tulameen BC. Took some 4x4ing to get there, but we did it.
The day started out great. Exploring the back country roads of BC, Stave Lake area. Views of Alouette Lake in the background
Impromptu ride on Burke. I dreamed of the day Aidan would ask to go for a ride...today was the day, “Dad do you want to go for a ride?” Heck ya, let’s go! This was a fun feature at the end.
An afternoon of exploring the Stave Lake zone. Planning to return soon once the snow melts to get some vertical.
Found a fun little gap-drop to session. I have my moments when I like my tires leaving the ground.
This would have been a fun stunt once upon a time!
And so it begins...another tool for adventuring! So different so fun!
You know it’s steep when your hand is touching the snow, high risk high reward.
The snow report suggested 8 cm had fallen, it was more like 25-30 cm.
Now that he has a dirt bike the hunt is on for me too. This is the first ride trying to figure out the timing of the throttle, clutch and brake...second ride was even better.
Exploring Pinecone Burke Provincial Park a month ago with @troy.hartley. Standing in the site of the old ski lodge.
A well weathered tree coming through yet another winter with Yak Peak 2,039 metres in the background. Putting my limited artist talent to the test, these iPhones and filters making anybody a photographer.
A successful reconnaissance mission we crossed Falls Lake, ski toured up towards Zopkios Peak 1921 m. It was a exceptional picnic destination. The skiing was shit!
Who’s is going to go first?...I’ll go if you don’t! No friends on a powder day! @j_penner70 📷 @sheascottcolpitts
An epic day. Everything was perfect. Depth of Snow. Visibility. Temperature. Even the company.
In the green room today on the best coast amidst winter...not a bad place. 📷 @dgm_images
I saw this hat on Instagram, that very moment I knew I needed it. As a BC boy born and bred The Outdoorsman hat needed to be added to my collection. As someone who loves BC and most things outdoor, I’m now glad I have a cool hat to wear and fly the flag of BEAUTIFUL BRITISH COLUMBIA. It will be in my bag for all post-exploration celebratory cold pints. If you want to check them out or add one to your collection go to @nineoclockgun ...and yes my facial hair matches the hat as well.
When two of your ski buddies are 13 years old, you know you’re raising rippers. @paigerriley
My ski buddy getting untracked turns. It was knee to thigh deep all day for him, only shin to knee for me.
We went for a snowshoe this afternoon, but we probably should have considered taking our flippers instead. Our timing was off by one day.
From sea to snow capped peaks, it’s obvious why Vancouver and BC continue to be one of the best places to live. It’s engraved on our license plates, BEAUTIFUL BRITISH COLUMBIA.
Ancient blue glacier ice craving out deep valleys. It’s pretty cool standing underneath one...photo credit @dustanwoodhouse
This is a great start to the day!
No better way to share the great outdoors than with friends. @troy.hartley @mike_ilic711 @j_penner70
The ski out back to the truck was more of an adventure than we bargained for...
Exploring the BC backcountry, it did not disappoint...it never really does.
Thank god we are all narcissistic and have the ability to take pictures of ourselves 🤪. This is taken pre-turkey dinner, I’m sure we will all be back in our comfy clothes soon! Merry Christmas!
The crew shredding some turns , it was a 23,000 vertical foot kind of day.
Happy belated Hanukah, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all. Be sure to enjoy the festivities.
Top of Swan Falls. I’ve said it many times before and I will say it again, our license plates say it all. BEAUTIFUL BRITISH COLUMBIA. #gooutside
The coveted annual mission to get our Xmas tree, with of course my Canadian tuxedo jacket on.
Yet another reason (unlimited really...) of why the Left Coast is the best coast! @tami0777
Moss, a non-vascular plant and Mother Nature’s carpet reclaiming the forest.
Capitalizing on a break in the wet coast rain storms.
Just follow the brown line switchbacking through Mother Nature. She’s so damn beautiful!
Day 3 for Black Magic was a bit snowier than initially expected. Thanks to the person who took a few minutes to build a snow creature.
Beauty day for a ride! I should have considered bringing my touring skis.
The West Coast is the Best Coast. #nofliter at sunset.
This was Day 1 on my @yt_industries Capra Pro 29. I thought the last bike was the best, it was a Capra Pro 27. I never thought the small differences in geometry and wheel size would have such a huge positive impact on my riding. Boy was I wrong! Best bike ever!
Oh boy! See a toy...buy a toy! New steed! YT Capra Pro 29 hitting the trails soon.
A tasty beverage while on the water yesterday from @backcountrybrewr and @backcountrybrewing
Epic ride with boys yesterday. Into the Mystic, Last Call, Happy Hour and Lord of the Squirrels. 5 hrs 15 mins, 31 km and 1,397 vertical metres.
Whistler slick rock is my favourite.
Wood to wood gap in Whistler.
Passing underneath the Ironworkers Memorial Bridge on the return journey of dinner-by-boat. No filter.
And now the training starts for Paris 2024 summer olympics.
Archery target: before, during and finished.
Aidan’s first day in the Whistler Bike Park, he had a blast and we rode trails I didn’t think we’d ride 😳. I’m sure we’ll return soon enough.
A rare sighting at the Whistler Bike Park, it’s been at least 10 years.
When the opportunity presented itself, I couldn’t pass up one of my favourite slick rock rolls.
Pre-dinner antics...it’s totally safe!
Aidan is captaining the watercraft, mom in just the passenger. Kalamaka Lake.
#Drewmboat camo @parksidebrewery
Safety first when roasting marshmallows.
Great place to press snooze for 20 minutes. Chez Labowka.
Raw kale. Just not the same as a kale caesar salad.
Saratoga Beach fire.
Canadian tuxedo.
Happy Canada 🇨🇦 Day to everyone near and far. I hope it’s a kick ass day. Play safe.
The @yellowdogbeer squirrel chaser or otherwise known as the chew toy was a hit with me and Moka Labowka
It’s always fun to start the trail with a repel. #mountainbike #climbing
It only took me a half dozen or so tries but I managed to cross the halfway line. This old guy still has it! Fun times.
Follow your path, at times you never know where it’s going to take you. Trust the outcome. Having fun in The Green Room.
This old guy was collecting a few air miles today.
Going vertical. #slickrock
I have a ski buddy, now it’s time to train a biking buddy.
I’m really looking forward to riding this gem once it re-opens. #burkeinmybackyard
Enjoying a distanced beverage with @senorwad @yellowdogbeer
Aidan and a couple buddies are now members at the Pitt Meadows Golf Club. @greggmcnally @genevemcnally @wendy22boddy @jaradboddy @kirstinjhallett
Raw and unedited. Old school skinny with a drop at the end.
I’m still HOME ALONE! Looking forward to the day when I’m able to have some friends over to share these @backcountrybrewing Widowmaker IPAs. #backcountryphotocontest
Zoa Peak, Coquihalla summit 1,500 vertical metres of skiing.
Distancing myself from the real world!
The dry land version of the @andrei_svechnikov37 lacrosse-style goal executed Aidan.
Skis or bike? Bike. The snow won’t stop me.
Does anybody need or want any firewood? It’s free...you come pick it up.
I needed to buck up the trees they fell in the last wind storm. Task complete.
View more
If you’re new to the home buying process, it’s easy to get confused by some of the terms used. The purpose of this article is to clear up any confusion between the deposit and downpayment. What is a deposit? The deposit is the money included with a purchase contract as a sign of good faith when you offer to purchase a property. It’s the “consideration” that helps make up the contract and binds you to the agreement. Typically, you include a certified cheque or a bank draft that your real estate brokerage holds while negotiations are finalized when you offer to purchase a property. If your offer is accepted, your deposit is held in your Realtor’s trust account. If your offer is accepted and you commit to buying the property, your deposit is transferred to the lawyer’s trust account and included in your downpayment. If you aren’t able to reach an agreement, the deposit is refunded to you. However, if you commit to buying the property and don’t complete the transaction, your deposit could be forfeit to the seller. Your deposit goes ahead of the downpayment but makes up part of the downpayment. The amount you put forward as a deposit when negotiating the terms of a purchase contract is arbitrary, meaning there is no predefined or standard amount. Instead, it’s best to discuss this with your real estate professional as your deposit can be a negotiating factor in and of itself. A larger deposit may give you a better chance of having your offer accepted in a competitive situation. It also puts you on the hook for more if something changes down the line and you cannot complete the purchase. What is a downpayment? Your downpayment refers to the initial payment you make when buying a property through mortgage financing. In Canada, the minimum downpayment amount is 5%, as lenders can only lend up to 95% of the property’s value. Securing mortgage financing with anything less than 20% down is only made possible through mortgage default insurance. You can source your downpayment from your resources, the sale of a property, an RRSP, a gift from a family member, or borrowed funds. Example scenario Let’s say that you are looking to purchase a property worth $400k. You’re planning on making a downpayment of 10% or $40k. When you make the initial offer to buy the property, you put forward $10k as a deposit your real estate brokerage holds in their trust account. If everything checks out with the home inspection and you’re satisfied with financing, you can remove all conditions. Your $10k deposit is transferred to the lawyer’s trust account, where will add the remaining $30k for the downpayment. With your $40k downpayment made, once you sign the mortgage documents and cover the legal and closing costs, the lender will forward the remaining 90% in the form of a mortgage registered to your title, and you have officially purchased the property! If you have any questions about the difference between the deposit and the downpayment or any other mortgage terms, please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to work with you.
Chances are if you’re applying for a mortgage, you feel confident about the state of your current employment or your ability to find a similar position if you need to. However, your actual employment status probably means more to the lender than you might think. You see, to a lender, your employment status is a strong indicator of your employer’s commitment to your continued employment. So, regardless of how you feel about your position, it’s what can be proven on paper that matters most. Let’s walk through some of the common ways lenders can look at employment status. Permanent Employment The gold star of employment. If your employer has made you a permanent employee, it means that your position is as secure as any position can be. When a lender sees permanent status (passed probation), it gives them the confidence that you’re valuable to the company and that they can rely on your income. Probationary Period Despite the quality of your job, if you’ve only been with the company for a short while, you’ll be required to prove that you’ve passed any probationary period. Although most probationary periods are typically 3-6 months, they can be longer. You might now even be aware that you’re under probation. The lender will want to make sure that you’re not under a probationary period because your employment can be terminated without any cause while under probation. Once you’ve made it through your initial evaluation, the lender will be more confident in your employment status. Now, it’s not the length of time with the employer that the lender is scrutinizing; instead, it’s the status of your probation. So if you’ve only been with a company for one month, but you’ve been working with them as a contractor for a few years, and they’re willing to waive the probationary period based on a previous relationship, that should give the lender all the confidence they need. We’ll have to get that documented. Parental Leave Suppose you’re currently on, planning to be on, or just about to be done a parental leave, regardless of the income you’re now collecting, as long as you have an employment letter that outlines your guaranteed return to work position (and date). In that case, you can use your return to work income to qualify on your mortgage application. It’s not the parental leave that the lender has issues with; it’s the ability you have to return to the position you left. Term Contracts Term contracts are hands down the most ambiguous and misunderstood employment status as it’s usually well-qualified and educated individuals who are working excellent jobs with no documented proof of future employment. A term contract indicates that you have a start date and an end date, and you are paid a specific amount for that specified amount of time. Unfortunately, the lack of stability here is not a lot for a lender to go on when evaluating your long-term ability to repay your mortgage. So to qualify income on a term contract, you want to establish the income you’ve received for at least two years. However, sometimes lenders like to see that your contract has been renewed at least once before considering it as income towards your mortgage application. In summary If you’ve recently changed jobs or are thinking about making a career change, and qualifying for a mortgage is on the horizon, or if you have any questions at all, please connect anytime. We can work through the details together and make sure you have a plan in place. It would be a pleasure to work with you!
