Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Mar 8th, 2023
Michael Hallett • March 8, 2023
Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
March 8, 2023
The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 4½%, with the Bank Rate at 4¾% and the deposit rate at 4½%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.
Global economic developments have evolved broadly in line with the outlook in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Global growth continues to slow, and inflation, while still too high, is coming down due primarily to lower energy prices. In the United States and Europe, near-term outlooks for growth and inflation are both somewhat higher than expected in January. In particular, labour markets remain tight, and elevated core inflation is persisting. Growth in China is rebounding in the first quarter. Commodity prices have evolved roughly in line with the Bank’s expectations, but the strength of China’s recovery and the impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine remain key sources of upside risk. Financial conditions have tightened since January, and the US dollar has strengthened.
In Canada, economic growth came in flat in the fourth quarter of 2022, lower than the Bank projected. With consumption, government spending and net exports all increasing, the weaker-than-expected GDP was largely because of a sizeable slowdown in inventory investment. Restrictive monetary policy continues to weigh on household spending, and business investment has weakened alongside slowing domestic and foreign demand.
The labour market remains very tight. Employment growth has been surprisingly strong, the unemployment rate remains near historic lows, and job vacancies are elevated. Wages continue to grow at 4% to 5%, while productivity has declined in recent quarters.
Inflation eased to 5.9% in January, reflecting lower price increases for energy, durable goods and some services. Price increases for food and shelter remain high, causing continued hardship for Canadians. With weak economic growth for the next couple of quarters, pressures in product and labour markets are expected to ease. This should moderate wage growth and also increase competitive pressures, making it more difficult for businesses to pass on higher costs to consumers.
Overall, the latest data remains in line with the Bank’s expectation that CPI inflation will come down to around 3% in the middle of this year. Year-over-year measures of core inflation ticked down to about 5%, and 3-month measures are around 3½%. Both will need to come down further, as will short-term inflation expectations, to return inflation to the 2% target.
At its January decision, the Governing Council indicated that it expected to hold the policy interest rate at its current level, conditional on economic developments evolving broadly in line with the MPR outlook. Based on its assessment of recent data, Governing Council decided to maintain the policy rate at 4½%. Quantitative tightening is complementing this restrictive stance. Governing Council will continue to assess economic developments and the impact of past interest rate increases, and is prepared to increase the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.
Information Note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is April 12, 2023. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the Monetary Policy Report at the same time.
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Bank of Canada maintains policy rate at 2.1/4%. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario December 10, 2025 The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. Major economies around the world continue to show resilience to US trade protectionism, but uncertainty is still high. In the United States, economic growth is being supported by strong consumption and a surge in AI investment. The US government shutdown caused volatility in quarterly growth and delayed the release of some key economic data. Tariffs are causing some upward pressure on US inflation. In the euro area, economic growth has been stronger than expected, with the services sector showing particular resilience. In China, soft domestic demand, including more weakness in the housing market, is weighing on growth. Global financial conditions, oil prices, and the Canadian dollar are all roughly unchanged since the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Canada’s economy grew by a surprisingly strong 2.6% in the third quarter, even as final domestic demand was flat. The increase in GDP largely reflected volatility in trade. The Bank expects final domestic demand will grow in the fourth quarter, but with an anticipated decline in net exports, GDP will likely be weak. Growth is forecast to pick up in 2026, although uncertainty remains high and large swings in trade may continue to cause quarterly volatility. Canada’s labour market is showing some signs of improvement. Employment has shown solid gains in the past three months and the unemployment rate declined to 6.5% in November. Nevertheless, job markets in trade-sensitive sectors remain weak and economy-wide hiring intentions continue to be subdued. CPI inflation slowed to 2.2% in October, as gasoline prices fell and food prices rose more slowly. CPI inflation has been close to the 2% target for more than a year, while measures of core inflation remain in the range of 2½% to 3%. The Bank assesses that underlying inflation is still around 2½%. In the near term, CPI inflation is likely to be higher due to the effects of last year’s GST/HST holiday on the prices of some goods and services. Looking through this choppiness, the Bank expects ongoing economic slack to roughly offset cost pressures associated with the reconfiguration of trade, keeping CPI inflation close to the 2% target. If inflation and economic activity evolve broadly in line with the October projection, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. Uncertainty remains elevated. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. The Bank is focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 28, 2026. The Bank’s next MPR will be released at the same time.
Following several challenging years, British Columbia’s housing market is beginning to stabilize. Prices, which experienced downward pressure in 2024–2025, have largely plateaued, with some areas showing modest gains. The recent Bank of Canada rate reduction to 2.25% has lowered borrowing costs, improving affordability and supporting market activity. Across the province, housing supply is gradually increasing. Builders are delivering more condos, townhomes, and single-family homes, easing some supply constraints. Meanwhile, population growth, fueled by domestic migration and international immigration, continues to support long-term housing demand. Key Statistics Home sales: BC home sales declined slightly in 2025 by approximately 1.1% to 73,650 units but are projected to rebound in 2026 by around 8.8%, reaching roughly 80,150 units. Average home price: The provincial average price dipped modestly by 0.9% in 2025 to $972,800, with forecasts projecting an increase of 3.2% in 2026 to approximately $1,004,000. Benchmark home price: As of April 2025, the BC benchmark home price stood at $953,500, down 1.3% year-over-year. Listings and inventory: Active listings are expected to exceed 40,000 units in 2025, the highest in more than a decade. Market Forecast 2025: Market remains relatively flat, with modest declines in sales and prices. 2026: Sales and prices begin to recover, with modest upward trends. Early 2027: Market stabilizes, reflecting measured growth and improved affordability. Regional differences will continue. Urban condo markets may see slower price appreciation, while suburban and smaller communities with limited supply could experience stronger gains. What This Means for Buyers and Homeowners Prospective buyers: 2026 is an opportunity to enter a more balanced market with lower interest rates. Current homeowners: Refinancing or mortgage renewal could be advantageous in this period of slightly lower rates. Investors: Localized analysis is critical, as neighborhood inventory and rental demand will determine returns. Bottom Line: BC’s housing market is shifting from a cooling phase toward a period of gradual recovery. Lower interest rates, steady population growth, and increased housing supply point to a healthier, more sustainable market. Buyers, homeowners, and investors should plan strategically, recognizing that while growth is returning, the pace will be measured and regionally variable.
