Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Sept 4th, 2019
Michael Hallett • September 4, 2019
The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 percent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ percent.
As the US-China trade conflict has escalated, world trade has contracted and business investment has weakened. This is weighing more heavily on global economic momentum than the Bank had projected in its July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Meanwhile, growth in the United States has moderated but remains solid, supported by consumer and government spending. Commodity prices have drifted down as concerns about global growth prospects have increased. These concerns, combined with policy responses by some central banks, have pushed bond yields to historic lows and inverted yield curves in a number of economies, including Canada.
In Canada, growth in the second quarter was strong and exceeded the Bank’s July expectation, although some of this strength is expected to be temporary. The rebound was driven by stronger energy production and robust export growth, both recovering from very weak performance in the first quarter. Housing activity has regained strength more quickly than expected as resales and housing starts catch up to underlying demand, supported by lower mortgage rates. This could add to already-high household debt levels, although mortgage underwriting rules should help to contain the buildup of vulnerabilities. Wages have picked up further, boosting labour income, yet consumption spending was unexpectedly soft in the quarter. Business investment contracted sharply after a strong first quarter, amid heightened trade uncertainty. Given this composition of growth, the Bank expects economic activity to slow in the second half of the year.
Inflation is at the 2 percent target. CPI inflation in July was stronger than expected, largely because of temporary factors. These include higher prices for air travel, mobile phones, and some food items, which are offsetting the effects of lower gasoline prices. Measures of core inflation all remain around 2 percent.
In sum, Canada’s economy is operating close to potential and inflation is on target. However, escalating trade conflicts and related uncertainty are taking a toll on the global and Canadian economies. In this context, the current degree of monetary policy stimulus remains appropriate. As the Bank works to update its projection in light of incoming data, Governing Council will pay particular attention to global developments and their impact on the outlook for Canadian growth and inflation.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is October 30, 2019. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time.
- October 30th 2019*
- December 4th 2019
* Monetary Policy Report published
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Bank of Canada maintains policy rate at 2.1/4%.  FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario December 10, 2025 The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. Major economies around the world continue to show resilience to US trade protectionism, but uncertainty is still high. In the United States, economic growth is being supported by strong consumption and a surge in AI investment. The US government shutdown caused volatility in quarterly growth and delayed the release of some key economic data. Tariffs are causing some upward pressure on US inflation. In the euro area, economic growth has been stronger than expected, with the services sector showing particular resilience. In China, soft domestic demand, including more weakness in the housing market, is weighing on growth. Global financial conditions, oil prices, and the Canadian dollar are all roughly unchanged since the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Canada’s economy grew by a surprisingly strong 2.6% in the third quarter, even as final domestic demand was flat. The increase in GDP largely reflected volatility in trade. The Bank expects final domestic demand will grow in the fourth quarter, but with an anticipated decline in net exports, GDP will likely be weak. Growth is forecast to pick up in 2026, although uncertainty remains high and large swings in trade may continue to cause quarterly volatility. Canada’s labour market is showing some signs of improvement. Employment has shown solid gains in the past three months and the unemployment rate declined to 6.5% in November. Nevertheless, job markets in trade-sensitive sectors remain weak and economy-wide hiring intentions continue to be subdued. CPI inflation slowed to 2.2% in October, as gasoline prices fell and food prices rose more slowly. CPI inflation has been close to the 2% target for more than a year, while measures of core inflation remain in the range of 2½% to 3%. The Bank assesses that underlying inflation is still around 2½%. In the near term, CPI inflation is likely to be higher due to the effects of last year’s GST/HST holiday on the prices of some goods and services. Looking through this choppiness, the Bank expects ongoing economic slack to roughly offset cost pressures associated with the reconfiguration of trade, keeping CPI inflation close to the 2% target. If inflation and economic activity evolve broadly in line with the October projection, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. Uncertainty remains elevated. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. The Bank is focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 28, 2026. The Bank’s next MPR will be released at the same time.
Following several challenging years, British Columbia’s housing market is beginning to stabilize. Prices, which experienced downward pressure in 2024–2025, have largely plateaued, with some areas showing modest gains. The recent Bank of Canada rate reduction to 2.25% has lowered borrowing costs, improving affordability and supporting market activity. Across the province, housing supply is gradually increasing. Builders are delivering more condos, townhomes, and single-family homes, easing some supply constraints. Meanwhile, population growth, fueled by domestic migration and international immigration, continues to support long-term housing demand. Key Statistics Home sales: BC home sales declined slightly in 2025 by approximately 1.1% to 73,650 units but are projected to rebound in 2026 by around 8.8%, reaching roughly 80,150 units. Average home price: The provincial average price dipped modestly by 0.9% in 2025 to $972,800, with forecasts projecting an increase of 3.2% in 2026 to approximately $1,004,000. Benchmark home price: As of April 2025, the BC benchmark home price stood at $953,500, down 1.3% year-over-year. Listings and inventory: Active listings are expected to exceed 40,000 units in 2025, the highest in more than a decade. Market Forecast 2025: Market remains relatively flat, with modest declines in sales and prices. 2026: Sales and prices begin to recover, with modest upward trends. Early 2027: Market stabilizes, reflecting measured growth and improved affordability. Regional differences will continue. Urban condo markets may see slower price appreciation, while suburban and smaller communities with limited supply could experience stronger gains. What This Means for Buyers and Homeowners Prospective buyers: 2026 is an opportunity to enter a more balanced market with lower interest rates. Current homeowners: Refinancing or mortgage renewal could be advantageous in this period of slightly lower rates. Investors: Localized analysis is critical, as neighborhood inventory and rental demand will determine returns. Bottom Line: BC’s housing market is shifting from a cooling phase toward a period of gradual recovery. Lower interest rates, steady population growth, and increased housing supply point to a healthier, more sustainable market. Buyers, homeowners, and investors should plan strategically, recognizing that while growth is returning, the pace will be measured and regionally variable. 
