Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Sept 6th, 2023
Michael Hallett • September 6, 2023
Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
September 6, 2023
The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.
Inflation in advanced economies has continued to come down, but with measures of core inflation still elevated, major central banks remain focused on restoring price stability. Global growth slowed in the second quarter of 2023, largely reflecting a significant deceleration in China. With ongoing weakness in the property sector undermining confidence, growth prospects in China have diminished. In the United States, growth was stronger than expected, led by robust consumer spending. In Europe, strength in the service sector supported growth, offsetting an ongoing contraction in manufacturing. Global bond yields have risen, reflecting higher real interest rates, and international oil prices are higher than was assumed in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR).
The Canadian economy has entered a period of weaker growth, which is needed to relieve price pressures. Economic growth slowed sharply in the second quarter of 2023, with output contracting by 0.2% at an annualized rate. This reflected a marked weakening in consumption growth and a decline in housing activity, as well as the impact of wildfires in many regions of the country. Household credit growth slowed as the impact of higher rates restrained spending among a wider range of borrowers. Final domestic demand grew by 1% in the second quarter, supported by government spending and a boost to business investment. The tightness in the labour market has continued to ease gradually. However, wage growth has remained around 4% to 5%.
Recent CPI data indicate that inflationary pressures remain broad-based. After easing to 2.8% in June, CPI inflation moved up to 3.3% in July, averaging close to 3% in line with the Bank’s projection. With the recent increase in gasoline prices, CPI inflation is expected to be higher in the near term before easing again. Year-over-year and three-month measures of core inflation are now both running at about 3.5%, indicating there has been little recent downward momentum in underlying inflation. The longer high inflation persists, the greater the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched, making it more difficult to restore price stability.
With recent evidence that excess demand in the economy is easing, and given the lagged effects of monetary policy, Governing Council decided to hold the policy interest rate at 5% and continue to normalize the Bank’s balance sheet. However, Governing Council remains concerned about the persistence of underlying inflationary pressures, and is prepared to increase the policy interest rate further if needed. Governing Council will continue to assess the dynamics of core inflation and the outlook for CPI inflation. In particular, we will be evaluating whether the evolution of excess demand, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behavior are consistent with achieving the 2% inflation target. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is October 25, 2023. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the Monetary Policy Report at the same time.
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One of the most common questions, “how long does it take to get pre-qualified?” My response, “how fast can you provide the information I need.”
Playing in the forest today. Always fun exploring. #mountainbikingmortgagebroker
Mortgage Brokering meets mountain biking and craft beer. A couple months ago I set for a bike ride with the intention of answering few mortgage related questions, mission accomplished. Any good bike ride pairs nicely with a tasty beer which we enjoyed @parksidebrewery. Hope you see the passion I have for brokering, biking and beer. @torcabikes #mountainbikingmortgagebroker
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Does anybody need or want any firewood? It’s free...you come pick it up.
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Worried About Your Mortgage Renewal? You’re Not Alone If your mortgage renewal is coming up soon, you're likely feeling a bit of financial pressure—and you’re not the only one. A recent survey shows that over half of Canadian homeowners believe their upcoming mortgage renewal could impact their current living situation. With interest rates still higher than what many borrowers locked in before 2022, 45% of those renewing in the next 12 months expect their monthly payments to increase. Even though the Bank of Canada has held its key overnight rate steady at 2.75%, borrowing costs remain elevated compared to the low-rate years we saw earlier in the decade. And that’s changing how Canadians think about their finances. Changing Plans and Tightening Budgets Among those worried about their renewal, 73% say they’re already cutting back on discretionary spending—things like eating out, entertainment, or travel—to brace for higher mortgage payments. For many, it goes deeper than just trimming the budget. Nearly one in four surveyed homeowners said they’re rethinking their entire financial strategy. Some are pressing pause on home renovations (43%), while others are considering downsizing or relocating to a more affordable area (29%). A smaller group (15%) is even open to major lifestyle changes, like moving in with roommates or relocating to a new neighbourhood altogether. Fixed-Rate Mortgages on the Rise In this climate, most homeowners looking to renew are leaning toward fixed-rate mortgages, with 75% preferring the stability of predictable payments. For those facing uncertainty, locking in a rate for the next few years can offer peace of mind—even if it means paying a little more in the short term. First-Time Buyers Are Feeling It Too It’s not just current homeowners feeling the pinch. A separate survey found that more than half of Canadians planning to buy a home are cutting back on non-essential spending to save for their down payment or other buying costs. About 31% are even considering tapping into savings or investment accounts like TFSAs, RRSPs, or first-time home savings accounts to make their purchase possible. What This Means for You Whether you’re preparing to renew or purchase for the first time, this environment calls for smart, strategic planning. You’re not alone in feeling uncertain—but with the right guidance, you can navigate these changes confidently. Have questions about your upcoming renewal or wondering what type of mortgage is right for today’s market? Let’s connect. We're here to help you make informed, confident decisions about your home financing.
So you’re thinking about co-signing on a mortgage? Great, let’s talk about what that looks like. Although it’s nice to be in a position to help someone qualify for a mortgage, it’s not a decision that you should make lightly. Co-signing a mortgage could have a significant impact on your financial future. Here are some things to consider. You’re fully responsible for the mortgage. Regardless if you’re the principal borrower, co-borrower, or co-signor, if your name is on the mortgage, you are 100% responsible for the debt of the mortgage. Although the term co-signor makes it sound like you’re somehow removed from the actual mortgage, you have all the same legal obligations as everyone else on the mortgage. When you co-sign for a mortgage, you guarantee that the mortgage payments will be made, even if you aren’t the one making them. So, if the primary applicant cannot make the payments for whatever reason, you’ll be expected to make them on their behalf. If payments aren’t made, and the mortgage goes into default, the lender will take legal action. This could negatively impact your credit score. So it’s an excellent idea to make sure you trust the primary applicant or have a way to monitor that payments are, in fact, being made so that you don’t end up in a bad financial situation. You’re on the mortgage until they can qualify to remove you. Once the initial mortgage term has been completed, you won’t be automatically removed from the mortgage. The primary applicant will have to make a new application in their own name and qualify for the mortgage on their own merit. If they don’t qualify, you’ll be kept on the mortgage for the next term. So before co-signing, it’s a good idea to discuss how long you can expect your name will be on the mortgage. Having a clear and open conversation with the primary applicant and your independent mortgage professional will help outline expectations. Co-signing a mortgage impacts your debt service ratio. When you co-sign for a mortgage, all of the debt of the co-signed mortgage is counted in your debt service ratios. This means that if you’re looking to qualify for another mortgage in the future, you’ll have to include the payments of the co-signed mortgage in those calculations, even though you aren’t the one making the payments directly. As this could significantly impact the amount you could borrow in the future, before you co-sign a mortgage, you’ll want to assess your financial future and decide if co-signing makes sense. Co-signing a mortgage means helping someone get ahead. While there are certainly things to consider when agreeing to co-sign on a mortgage application, chances are, by being a co-signor, you'll be helping someone you care for get ahead in life. The key to co-signing well is to outline expectations and over-communicate through the mortgage process. If you have any questions about co-signing on a mortgage or about the mortgage application process in general, please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to work with you.
