Are Interest Rates Going Up and Down at the Same Time? COVID-19
Michael Hallett • April 7, 2020
If you’re paying more attention to the Canadian economy due to COVID-19, and it seems like you’re getting mixed messages; that mortgage interest rates are going both up and down at the same time, you’re not that far off. There are a lot of moving parts, and to find clarity, we need to make sure we’re comparing apples to apples, and oranges to oranges.
Let’s begin by acknowledging that not all interest rates are the same. The term “interest rates” can mean a lot of different things in news story headlines.
The Government “overnight rate” is different from the “qualifying rate”, which is different from the banks “prime rate”, which is different from “variable rates”, which is different from the “discount on a variable rate” which is different from “fixed rates”.
Here’s a list of the different types of mortgage rates, a quick summary of what they are, the direction they’re going, and how they impact you.
Target for the Overnight Rate.
Also known as the policy rate, this is the rate that the Bank of Canada (The Government) controls. When the Bank of Canada changes the Target for the Overnight Rate, this change affects other interest rates in the economy.
Typically there are only eight days in the year for the Bank of Canada to announce if they will change the rate. However, given the recent COVID-19, the Bank of Canada has made special announcements.
The overnight rate was set with a target of 1.75% for a long time before the pandemic.
March 4th 2020, the rate was lowered to 1.25%. March 16th 2020, the rate was lowered to 0.75% in an emergency rate cut. March 27th 2020, the rate was lowered to 0.25% in a second emergency rate cut.
The overnight rate now sits at 0.25% with April 15th 2020, as the next scheduled announcement date.
By cutting interest rates, the government hopes to stimulate economic growth. Lower financing costs encourages borrowing and investing, which is what our government believes will get us through this pandemic.
Qualifying Rate
Also known as the Benchmark Qualifying Rate or the five year qualifying posted rate, this is another rate set by the government. If you’re getting an insured mortgage, the government wants to make sure you will be able to afford your mortgage at the end of your term (in case interest rates go up). So they make you qualify for your mortgage at a higher rate than you will actually be paying.
The government has recently dropped the qualifying rate from 5.19% to 5.04%. This decrease, like the drop in the overnight rate, is meant to help stimulate the economy. The average Canadian will qualify to borrow an additional $10,000 with this drop.
Banks Prime Rate
The banks prime lending rate isn’t the same as the overnight rate; however, the banks prime lending rate is impacted by the overnight rate. Each bank sets its own prime lending rate. When the Bank of Canada moves the overnight rate, typically the prime rate at each bank will follow.
Because of the emergency rate cut on March 27th, banks lowered their prime lending rate to 2.45%. Some banks moved immediately, while some made the change effective April 1st, which means the savings will be seen on May 1st, but they all did lower their prime rates.
The prime lending rate is used by banks to determine rates on floating mortgage products (like the variable rate), lines of credit, home equity lines of credit (HELOC), and some credit cards.
If you currently have a variable rate mortgage or a HELOC, a lower prime rate means that you are now paying less interest on your existing mortgage, this is a good thing.
Variable Rate Mortgage
A variable rate mortgage is a mortgage that fluctuates with the prime lending rate. Typically, the mortgage rate will change with the prime lending rate and includes a “component” or “discount” to the prime rate +/- a specified amount, such as Prime - 0.45%. The lender sets this component to prime.
So, if you have a variable rate mortgage at Prime -0.45%, the rate you’d be paying today (with a prime rate of 2.45%) is 2%.
This is where it gets a little confusing because while the government is trying to stimulate the economy by lowering the overnight rate, banks have followed by lowering their prime rate, but at the same time have increased the component to prime - by the same amount 0.5%.
Although there are immediate savings for existing variable rate mortgage holders, anyone looking to get a new variable rate mortgage will do so at a higher rate than a few weeks ago.
Fixed Rate Mortgage
As its name suggests, a fixed rate mortgage is where your mortgage rate stays the same throughout your term. Your rate isn’t tied to the prime lending rate but rather is unmoved by outside factors. With all the uncertainty in the Canadian economy, lenders have actually been increasing rates for new fixed rate mortgages.
So while the government is doing all they can to keep rates low, why are banks increasing fixed rate mortgages?
Well, banks are in the business of making money, and given that over 2 million Canadians have applied for some kind of assistance to get through COVID-19, the fear is that mortgage delinquency will go up considerably as the coronavirus financially impacts people.
Banks are increasing fixed rates to protect themselves against economic uncertainty.
So what does this mean for you? Well, as everyone’s financial situation is different, it’s impossible to give blanket advice that applies to everyone. But here is some general advice.
Existing Variable Rate Holders
You’re doing well. The recent drop in the banks prime rate to 2.45% has lowered the amount of interest you are paying on your mortgage. You have a discount to prime for the remainder of your term that isn’t currently available in the market. Your mortgage rate is one of the lowest in Canadian history.
As the next announcement by the government will be April 15th 2020, there is a chance your rate could go even lower.
If at this time, you’re considering locking your variable rate into a fixed rate, that would significantly increase the amount of interest you are paying. As fixed rates have increased over the last weeks, this isn’t a good option right now.
The reason you went variable in the first place is the reason you should stay variable at this point. With all the economic uncertainty, the prime rate won’t be going up anytime soon.
Existing Fixed Rate Mortgage Holders
Your fixed rate is set lower than the fixed rates currently being offered. If you break your term now, you will incur a higher penalty. So unless you must make a move, it would probably be best just to stay the course.
Hopefully, fixed rates will go down when the economic uncertainty winds down, and rates will be in a good spot when your term comes up for renewal.
Are you looking for a new mortgage?
The most important thing for you going forward is flexibility. Variable rates are still historically low, and although fixed rate mortgages have gone up over the last weeks, there are many great options, maybe a shorter term is a better fit for you?
The best place to start is to contact me directly so we can go over your financial situation and discuss the best plan for you to move ahead in these uncertain times.
So although it may appear that mortgage interest rates are going both up and down at the same time, understanding what is meant by “interest rates” is crucial. The government is lowering rates to stimulate the economy, while banks are trying to protect themselves against future losses by increasing rates while they can.
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Thinking of Buying a Home? Here’s Why Getting Pre-Approved Is Key If you’re ready to buy a home but aren’t sure where to begin, the answer is simple: start with a pre-approval. It’s one of the most important first steps in your home-buying journey—and here's why. Why a Pre-Approval is Crucial Imagine walking into a restaurant, hungry and excited to order, but unsure if your credit card will cover the bill. It’s the same situation with buying a home. You can browse listings online all day, but until you know how much you can afford, you’re just window shopping. Getting pre-approved for a mortgage is like finding out the price range you can comfortably shop within before you start looking at homes with a real estate agent. It sets you up for success and saves you from wasting time on properties that might be out of reach. What Exactly is a Pre-Approval? A pre-approval isn’t a guarantee. It’s not a promise that a lender will give you a mortgage no matter what happens with your finances. It’s more like a preview of your financial health, giving you a clear idea of how much you can borrow, based on the information you provide at the time. Think of it as a roadmap. After going through the pre-approval process, you’ll have a much clearer picture of what you can afford and what you need to do to make the final approval process smoother. What Happens During the Pre-Approval Process? When you apply for a pre-approval, lenders will look at a few key areas: Your income Your credit history Your assets and liabilities The property you’re interested in This comprehensive review will uncover any potential hurdles that could prevent you from securing financing later on. The earlier you identify these challenges, the better. Potential Issues a Pre-Approval Can Reveal Even if you feel confident that your finances are in good shape, a pre-approval might uncover issues you didn’t expect: Recent job changes or probation periods An income that’s heavily commission-based or reliant on extra shifts Errors or collections on your credit report Lack of a well-established credit history Insufficient funds saved for a down payment Existing debt reducing your qualification amount Any other financial blind spots you might not be aware of By addressing these issues early, you give yourself the best chance of securing the mortgage you need. A pre-approval makes sure there are no surprises along the way. Pre-Approval vs. Pre-Qualification: What’s the Difference? It’s important to understand that a pre-approval is more than just a quick online estimate. Unlike pre-qualification—which can sometimes be based on limited information and calculations—a pre-approval involves a thorough review of your finances. This includes looking at your credit report, providing detailed documents, and having a conversation with a mortgage professional about your options. Why Get Pre-Approved Now? The best time to secure a pre-approval is as soon as possible. The process is free and carries no risk—it just gives you a clear path forward. It’s never too early to start, and by doing so, you’ll be in a much stronger position when you're ready to make an offer on your dream home. Let’s Make Your Home Buying Journey Smooth A well-planned mortgage process can make all the difference in securing your home. If you’re ready to get pre-approved or just want to chat about your options, I’d love to help. Let’s make your home-buying experience a smooth and successful one!
If you’re looking to purchase a property, although you might not think it matters too much, the source of your downpayment means a great deal to the lender. Let’s discuss the lender requirements, what your downpayment tells the lender about your financial situation, a how downpayment helps establish the mortgage loan to value. Anti-money laundering Lenders care about your downpayment source because, legally, they have to. To prevent money laundering, lenders have to document the source of the downpayment on every home purchase. Acceptable forms of downpayment are money from your resources, borrowed funds through an insured program called the FlexDown, or money you receive as a gift from an immediate family member. To prove the funds are from your resources and not laundered money from the proceeds of crime, you’ll be required to provide bank statements showing the money has been in your account for at least 90 days or that you’ve accumulated the funds through payroll deposits or other acceptable means. Now, if you’re borrowing all or part of your downpayment, you’ll need to include the costs of carrying the payments on the borrowed downpayment in your debt service ratios. If you’re the recipient of a gift from a direct family member, you’ll need to provide a signed gift letter indicating that the funds are a true gift and have no schedule for repayment. From there, you’ll need to show the money deposit into your account. Financial suitability Lenders care about the source of the downpayment because it is an indicator that you are financially able to purchase the property. Showing the lender that your downpayment is coming from your resources is the best. This demonstrates that you have positive cash flow and that you’re able to save money and manage your finances in a way that indicates you’ll most likely make your mortgage payments on time. If your downpayment is borrowed or from a gift, there’s a chance that they’ll want to scrutinize the rest of your application more closely. The bigger your downpayment, the better, well, as far as the lender is concerned. The way they see it, there is a direct correlation between how much money you have as equity to the likelihood you will or won’t default on their mortgage. Essentially, the more equity you have, the less likely you will walk away from the mortgage, which lessens their risk. Downpayment establishes the loan to value (LTV) Thirdly, your downpayment establishes the loan to value ratio. The loan to value ratio or LTV is the percentage of the property’s value compared to the mortgage amount. In Canada, a lender cannot lend more than 95% of a property’s value. So, if you’re buying a home for $400k, the lender can lend $380k, and you’re responsible for coming up with 5%, $ 20k in this situation. But you might be asking yourself, how does the source of the downpayment impact LTV? Great question, and to answer this, we have to look at how to establish property value. Simply put, something is worth what someone is willing to pay for it and what someone is willing to sell it for. Of course, within reason, having no external factors coming into play. When dealing with real estate, an appraisal of the property will include comparisons of what other people have agreed to pay for similar properties in the past. You’ll often hear of situations where buyers and sellers try to inflate the sale price to help finalize the transaction artificially. Any scenario where the buyer isn’t coming up with all of the money for the downpayment, independent of the seller, impacts the LTV. All details of a real estate transaction purchase and sale have to be disclosed to the lender. If there’s any money transferring behind the scenes, this impacts the LTV, and the lender won’t proceed with financing. Non-disclosure to the lender is mortgage fraud. So there you have it; hopefully, this provides context to why lenders ask for documents to prove the source of your downpayment. If you’d like to talk about mortgage financing, please connect anytime; it would be a pleasure to work with you.
